Massachusetts Miracle? A Wicked-Close Race Breaks Wide Open
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Politics
Massachusetts Miracle? A Wicked-Close Race Breaks Wide Open
Bruce Barcott
October 19 2016
Legalization proponents in Massachusetts woke up to a stunner this morning. The Boston Globe reported that Question 4 the state measure to legalize and regulate the adult use of cannabis has jumped out to a 15-point lead in the latest poll.
A WBUR poll conducted last week found that 55 percent of voters now lean in favor of the measure with 40 percent opposed. Thats a movement of 10 percentage pointsan enormous shift in politicsfrom last month when the same poll found the race split 5045.
A stunner: Legalization in Massachusetts now leads 55 to 40.
The poll marks a momentous turnaround in the legalization race. Last spring Question 4 advocates found themselves facing an electorate little interested in legalization. State officials including Gov. Charlie Baker Boston Mayor Marty Walsh and Attorney General Maura Healey came out strongly opposed to the measure. Their vocal opposition laid out in a Globe op-ed drove early negatives on the measure. Kids in states that have legalized marijuana have easier access to the drug they claimed contrary to the early data from Colorado and Washington.
Early polling had the measure losing 50 percent to 40.
Then just after Labor Day something changed. The polls reversed themselves. One survey had the voters running 5341 in favor of legalization. A September poll from WBUR found the split 5045 in favor of passage.
What led to the turnaround?
Two things says Jim Borghesani. Hes the communications director for the Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol in Massachusetts the Yes on 4 folks. First we never quite believed the early polls. We thought it was close but we didnt think we were underwater. Those early polls didnt reach voters using cell phones and our base is a younger base. Polls show voters in their 20s and 30s tend to be the most supportive of legalization.
The second thing thats happened says Borghesani is that political leaders and medical professionals have now come out to publicly support Question 4. That has gone a long way to help combat opponents misleading campaign claims.
In the past two months Sen. Elizabeth Warren Rep. Seth Moulton Rep. Michael Capuano and former Gov. William Weld have all come forward to support the measure publicly. So has Boston City Council President Michelle Wu as well as former state troopers police officers and state assistant attorney generals. Retired Boston Police Lt. Tom Nolan who looks like he plays a tough Boston cop on a TV show about tough Boston cops called Question 4 the smaht choice.
Widespread support from doctors and nurses has proven to be a powerful political signal. We now have more than a hundred physicians supporting us Borghesani says. Those supporters include Dr. Alan Wartenberg former president of the state chapter of the American Society of Addiction Medicine and Dr. Susan Lucas who taped this video for the campaign:
Last week a third factor entered the race: Rick Steves.
The happy cannabis crusader
I happened to be on a three-day excursion across Massachusetts last week accompanying my daughter on a tour of prospective colleges. Practically everywhere I went I heard the warm reassuring voice of the PBS travel show host. Steves was barnstorming across the state for Question 4. (Read more about the tour from Leafly correspondent Dan McCarthy.
In this 2012 photo travel guide author and marijuana legalization supporter Rick Steves holds a plastic marijuana leaf necklace as he sits with a poster used to advertise his travel business in Edmonds Wash. (Elaine Thompson/AP)
In the pages of the Boston Globe and the Daily Hampshire Gazette Steves laid out many of the same arguments that helped pass Initiative 502 in his (and my) home state of Washington in 2012. But this time around Steves had four years of positive experience and data to work with. What weve found is no rise in crime no increase in teen use and our arrests for possession have gone to nearly zero I heard him tell morning host Bill Newman on WHMP in Northampton.
As he spoke you could practically hear votes flip for Question 4. As a trusted icon reassuring wary Americans about cannabis legalization Steves has no peer. He helped open my mind four years ago and he did the same for untold numbers of voters in the Northeast.
On Friday as Steves turned north toward Maine and its own legalization campaign legalization opponents in Massachusetts announced that Sheldon Adelson prohibitions Daddy Warbucks had given the No on 4 campaign a much-needed infusion of $1 million. The timing may have been a coincidence. But it sure felt like a rearguard action to shore up the losses inflicted by the gregarious travel guide.
Old fears die hard
Its impossible to prove that Stevess statewide tour bumped the new poll numbers but it certainly didnt hurt. And itll be interesting to see how Adelsons $1 million donation plays out over the next three weeks. That money will buy a lot of TV advertising time. And ads like the one below created by the Campaign for a Safe and Healthy Massachusetts can be strong persuaders.
For those of us living in legal states its easy to forget how tough it can be to assure voters that legalization wont unleash havoc in the streets. I gave two radio interviews in Boston last week and the same questions came up again and again. What about the stories we hear about kids eating edibles and ending up in the ER? Why are drugged driving numbers spiking? (They arent.) Wont Big Marijuana just steamroll the legislature once they start making a profit?
Of course a billion-dollar cannabis industry already exists in Massachusetts. Its simply underground untaxed and unregulated. But legalization opponents clearly see child-danger impaired driving and the specter of big marijuana as themes that will resonate with voters.
Im confused. Isnt this a reliably blue state?
Yes and no. When it comes to politics there are two states of Massachusetts.
On the Electoral College map the state runs so deeply liberal that Pantone could use it to define the color blue. Massachusetts has tipped red only twicefor Eisenhower and Reagansince 1924. Boston practically invented the liberal Democrat: the Kennedys Tip ONeil Michael Dukakis John Kerry Elizabeth Warren.
Internally Massachusetts is a different beast. Republican governorsWilliam Weld Mitt Romney and current Gov. Charlie Bakerregularly find favor. People assume Massachusetts is progressive in a uniform way but thats not the case says Dan Delaney a former state official and current political consultant in Boston. Were a blue-blue-blue state but we also have a strong working-class Puritan ethos. Delaney by the way is a firm believer in medical marijuana but came out opposed to Question 4. Massachusetts: Its complicated.
A prim and proper thread is woven into the local culture. Shirts stay buttoned up. Skirts brush ankles. Theres a reason banned in Boston was once shorthand for prudish censorship.
The state and Boston in particular is also a global hub for health care practice and research. Questions of addiction and the public-health ramifications of legalization play a larger role here than in just about any other state.
Cannabis and opioids in the Daily Hampshire Gazette: How the gateway myth gets perpetuated.Bruce Barcott/Leafly
The opioid crisis has hit the Northeast like a winter storm. Heroin and fentanyl stories have become a staple of the Boston Globe. When I was in the city last May the Globe ran a front-pager about condo owners bracing their front doors with two-by-fours against break-ins by addicts seeking drugs and cash.
If science swayed votes this would be an issue for legalization advocates to emphasize. Studies have shown that opioid use and overdose deaths decrease markedly in states that legalize medical and adult-use marijuana. Were talking hundreds of human lives. But science takes time to seep into public consciousness. Those are recent studies and they have to become common knowledge before they can overturn decades of propaganda about cannabis as a gateway drug. The opioid crisis was used to defeat legalization earlier this year in Vermont and its being used by the No on 4 folks to call undecided voters into their camp. (Maine meanwhile was so excited by the potential for cannabis to curb overdose deaths that the state legislature considered adding opioid addiction as a qualifying condition for medical marijuana.)
Its a tough issue to overcome. One day last week the front page of Northamptons Daily Hampshire Gazette carried a story headlined Travel guru Steves argues for legal weed. Directly beneath it in what might have been a local editors misguided attempt at balance ran a story headlined Fentanyl eyed as leading cause of opioid overdoses.
Old drug war tropes die hard. But if the latest WBUR poll is an indication they can be broken by straight talk from trusted sources such as Rick Steves Sen. Elizabeth Warren and the doctors and nurses of Massachusetts.
BostonElection 2016legalizationmassachusettspoliticsRick StevesSheldon Adelson
Bruce Barcott
Bruce is Leaflys deputy editor. He is a Guggenheim Fellow and author of Weed the People: The Future of Legal Marijuana in America.
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by Bruce Barcott at Leafly