Editors Note: This week Leafly publishes Cannabis Jobs Count a special series on jobs in the legal cannabis economy. The series continuestoday with Bruce Barcott and Gage Peakes state-by-state count of legal cannabis jobs. Tomorrow Rob Reuteman profiles five real people with five real cannabis jobs. Its not easy to determine how many full-time jobs are supported by Americas legal cannabis industry. But that doesnt mean we cant try. As Leafly contributor Rob Reuteman reported yesterday the federal government doesnt allow cannabis jobs to be tallied using NAICS codes which are the basis for most standardized employment data in the U.S. Canada and Mexico. Documenting thosejobs is more important than ever. The fate of state-legal cannabis remains uncertain as the Trump administration prepares to take office. At his Senate confirmation hearing next week attorney general nominee Jeff Sessions will answer questions about legalization. Sessions has spoken out against legalization in the past and many believe he may take steps to curtail the industry. Sessions and members of the Senate Judiciary Committee should be aware of the more than 122000 legal hard-working taxpaying Americans whose jobs are supported by legal cannabis. By tallying estimates for each state we found 122814 full-time jobs. Behind every one of those jobs is a hard-working taxpaying American. Theyre the botanists at Medicine Man in Denver; the oil extraction technicians at Dama in Seattle; the budtenders at Farma in Portland; the mechanical engineers at Apeks Supercritical in Johnstown Ohio; the scientists at Steep Hill Labs in Honolulu Albuquerque Seattle and Portland. Theyre lawyers at Harris Bricken theyre software developers at MJ FreewayBusiness Solutions. Theyre writers editors web developers event planners and customer support specialistshere at Leafly. Theyre also farmers. With $1.27 billion in sales in 2016 Washington states cannabis crop now represents the second most valuable farmed commodity in that state behind only applesand ahead of milk potatoes and wheat. If a Sessions-led Justice Departmentwhich includes the DEAwere to interfere with successful regulated legalization in 29 states the Trump administration would be directly sending American jobs across our borders. Some ancillary businesses would survive; a few might move to Canada. But thousands of safe legal American cannabis farming harvesting processing and distribution jobs would be sent across the southern border to violent criminal Mexican cartels. And there are a lot of legal jobs out there. It took us three months to research and count them. Heres what we found. Adult Use States Medical Use States How we arrived at that estimate Few states have reliable data on cannabis jobs. But each legal state keeps a tally of something. Some track the number of registered medical cannabis patients. Others keep tabs on licensed dispensaries or annual sales figures. Theres usually at least one reliable number out there. Using that number we did a little algebra. We solved for X using other known values. Our starting points were Colorado and Arizona. In October 2016 the Denver-based Marijuana Policy Group (MPG) a public policy consulting group that often does contract work for various state agencies published a study of the cannabis industrys effect on the Colorado economy. It includedthe most rigorous study on cannabis jobs to date. You can read the whole thing here. The MPG study found that $996 million in Colorado cannabis sales in 2015 supported 18005 full time equivalent (FTE) jobs. (The figure in the table above is higher because its based on estimated 2016 sales of $1.33 billion.) We had a long conversation with economist Adam Orens one of the principal authors of that report. He told us how he and his colleagues came up with foundational job numbers by ground-truthing a lot of Colorado license holders. That is they visited called and wrote to various business executives asking how many people they employed. Orens cautioned us on the use of his firms data. A professional economist he said would not transfer the Colorado assumptions and numbers to other states. It wouldnt be sound practice he said because each states cannabis industry exists under different regulatory conditions. And no trade flows across state borders. When it comes to cannabis each state is a hermetically sealed economic system. With due respect to Orens and his MPG colleagues were going to break that rule of non-transferability. It may not be the absolute best economic practice to do so. But the cannabis economy operates in an environment where incremental progress is necessary. Our numbers arent perfect. But theyre better than none at all. And a state-by-state good-faith effort is a far sight better than pretending as the federal government does that more than one hundred thousand legal full-time jobs simply dont exist. If 2016 sales were compared to the latest (2015) data on agricultural commodities cannabis would be Washington states second most valuable crop. (Click image to enlarge.) Establishing known values Lets create a known value. If $996 million in sales supported 18005 full time (FTE) jobs in Colorado then an average of $55333 in sales were required to support one full time job. Thats a useful number. Arizona also gave us a couple helpful known averages. The southwestern state maintains one of the nations most reliable counts of patients and dispensaries. Currently there are 99 dispensaries serving about 98000 patients. The state also tracks how much cannabisby weightis sold by dispensaries and posts that data monthly. Thanks to the Leafly menu app we know that cannabis sells for about $300 an ounce in Phoenix ($280 for bottom shelf $360 for top). Thats $4800 per pound. Using that information we can calculate an average $21.6 million per month in sales in Arizona based on 4500 monthly pounds sold at $4800 per pound retail. That gives us a figure of $259 million in annual sales in Arizona. Spread among 99 registered dispensaries that means each dispensary records around $2.6 million in annual sales. Thats a helpful estimate to have when the the number of operating dispensaries is the only known data point in some states. Heres another known value: Arizonas $259 million spread among 98000 patients works out to about $2643 in annual medical marijuana purchases per patient. Thats about $220 per patient per month. Which in our personal experience seems about right. If we apply Colorados jobs-per-sales number to the sales figures in other states and Arizonas per-patient and per-dispensary averages we start getting some interesting job estimates. Below we explain how we arrived at full-time equivalent job estimates for each of the 29legal states plus the District of Columbia. STATE BY STATE ADULT-USE STATES Colorado: 23407 In 2015 $996 million in sales yielded 18005 full time jobs according to the Marijuana Policy Groups October 2016 report. 2016 sales are on track to reach $1.33 billion. If the same sales-to-jobs metric holds that would put Colorado at 23407 FTE jobs. Washington state: 22952Officially Washingtons Liquor and Cannabis Board recorded $1.1 billion in cannabis sales in 2016. But that number is deceptive because medical dispensary saleswhich werent tallied by the statebegan at an estimated $35 million per month in January and shrunk to about $15 million per month in June as each of hundreds of dispensaries shut their doors. Starting July 1 all salesadult use and medicalwent through state-licensed retail shops. We estimate that missing medical sales figure at $160 million which brings the states 2016 sales total to $1.27 billion. If we use the Colorado formula ($55333 in sales buys one FTE job) that gives us a full time job estimate of 22952. Oregon: 11295 We have to figure Oregons sales by using the states only published number which is monthly marijuana tax revenue. Oregon is now consistently averaging $7.1 million in monthly cannabis tax revenue. Prorated thats $85.2 million per year. Oregon has been tricky because until recently adult-use stores collected a 17 percent tax on sales while medical dispensaries that also sell adult-use cannabis collected a 25 percent tax on sales of adult-use products. (That disparity ended on Dec. 31 2016.) At the 25 percent rate that yields gross sales of $340.8 million/yr (for a medical shop selling retail). At the 17 percent rate that yields gross sales of $501.2 million per year (for a retail shop). If we estimate that a quarter of adult-use sales were through medical shops we arrive at an annual sales figure of $461 million. From there we have to add an estimate for medical cannabis sales which are not taxed. For that we go to the number of patients registered by the Oregon Department of Health: 68000. Lets subtract 10 percent to account for for patients who are registered but not purchasing. Then well apply the annual patient spending average figure we got from Arizona. 62000 patients multiplied by $2643 annual average purchases equals $164 million. Combine the $164 million in medical sales with $461 million from the adult-use market and we get $625 million in annual sales. Using the Colorado sales-to-jobs metric that yields 11295 full time jobs. Alaska: 154Alaska has 1093 registered medical cannabis patients which would normally equate to annual sales of around $2.6 million. But Alaska is a big homegrow state so thats got to be factored in. Its just now starting to see some adult-use retailers open. That market is projected to generate $6 million to $12 million in sales during 2017. There are 21 cannabis farmers currently licensed by the state. Well estimate four FTEs per farm so theres 84 jobs. The state is still trying to get one lab licensed so theres 10 more jobs. There are about 18 retailers up and running around the state but theyre still small operations. Well estimate 60 jobs for that sector. Total: 154 full time jobs. There are probably more but were going to stay conservative on Alaska right now. Washington DC: 150Technically legal for adult use but hamstrung by Congress the Districts jobs remain strictly in the medical sector. Adults can possess and share cannabis legally but nobody can buy or sell it which means nobody can make a legal living from the adult-use market. In the medical market there are approximately 3500 medical marijuana patients. Subtract 10 percent for patients who dont purchase and well say 3150 patients make up a market of around $8.3 million in annual sales. That supports around 150 full time jobs. MEDICAL STATES California: 43374 Yes California just legalized adult-use cannabis. But the first licenses for non-medical cannabis growers and retailers wont be issued until Jan. 1 2018 at the earliest. For at least the next 12 months California remains a medical state. And its a state that continues to keep no accurate count of patients sales dispensaries or weight of product sold. So were left with sweeping market-size estimates based on the states population cultural affinity for cannabis and one solidpiece of data about the number of operating dispensaries. The market analysts at Arcview and New Frontier estimated the states total medical cannabis market in 2016 at $2.7 billion. Thats three times the market size of Colorado a state with one-sixth the population of California. On the lower end the analysts at Marijuana Business Daily in their 2016 Marijuana Business Factbook estimate 875000 patients in California and a market value of $900 million to $1.2 billion. That market value is on par with Washington states current market size which strikes us as a substantial underestimate. If we take MJ Bizs patient estimate though and apply Arizonas per-patient annual spending average ($2643) we get $2.07 billion in annual salesa more solid if still conservative estimate. Its hard to imagine Arizona patients spending more per year than California patients. Heres another way to crack California: In 2015 Erick Eschker an economics professor and co-director of the Humboldt Institute for Interdisciplinary Marijuana Research at Humboldt State Universityground-truthed the number of actual operating dispensaries in California. He and his research team found 815. At $2.6 million in average annual sales per dispensary thats a $2.1 billion market which is close to the MJ Biz patient-based estimate above. Lets set the low estimate for Californias market value at $2.1 billion and the high at $2.7 billion. Then split the difference. Call California in 2016 a $2.4 billion market. Using the Colorado sales-to-jobs metric that yields 43374 full time jobs. Michigan: 7726 According to the Michigan State Department of Health and Human Services there were 182000 medical cannabis patients registered with the state in 2015.(Michigan has a population of around 10 million people which puts its MMJ patient per-capita rate a little lower than Arizonas.) State MMJ cards expire every two years and it costs $60 to apply and renew so we can assume there arent many non-purchasing patients on the list. Leaflys dispensary finderas well as other sources list about 190 dispensaries around the state. If patients were dispersed equally thats 958 patients per dispensary or $2.5 million in annual sales per dispensary for a total market of $475 million. Michigan is an active homegrow state so well knock 10 percent off for patients who grow their own. That leaves us a market of $427.5 million which supports 7726 full time jobs. Arizona: 4681 See our previous discussion of Arizona above for details on the states data. $259 million in medical cannabis sales in 2016 yields 4681 full time jobs. Nevada: 2295Nevada is tough to get a handle on. ArcView/New Frontier forecast $121 million in medical cannabis sales in 2016. MJ Biz foresaw a much smaller market of $25 million to $35 million in medical sales. We think the ArcView/New Frontier figure is closer to the truth. There are currently 49 dispensaries operating in Nevadaa solid data point because dispensaries are required to have a state license. Applying the Arizona model average of $2.6 million in annual sales per dispensary thats $127.4 million in total annual sales.Patient counts are less reliable in Nevada because an estimated two-thirds of Nevada dispensary patients are out-of-state visitors who take advantage of the states reciprocity law. There are 25291 active registered Nevada resident patients which would yield a $67 million market. But if 2/3 of sales are to out-of-staters that bumps the total market to $201 million in annual sales. In the end well go with the market estimate based on the number of licensed dispensaries. Thats a $127 million market which yields 2295 full time jobs. Massachusetts: 1283 With adult-use retail stores scheduled to open in July 2018 Massachusetts reported a robust MMJ market of 33079 patients in 2016. The state labels 27000 of those as unique active patients served so well go with that more conservative figure as the basis of our total market estimate. That gives us an annual sales figure of $71 million. How accurate is that? Heres a secondary basis check. The Massachusetts Executive Office of Health and Human Services (EOHHS) tracks the amount of cannabis flower sold monthly and posts it on a public dashboard. From February to November of 2016 the state tripled the amount of monthly flower sold and the number of patients seen at registered dispensaries. The market has grown so fast that just adding up the 2016 numbers doesnt give us an accurate picture of the market today. If we extrapolate the November 2016 numberswhich the trendline indicates will only continue to increaseover 12 months we see 16000 ounces sold per month. At $350 an ounce that amounts to total sales of $67.2 million which is close to our $71 million estimate. A $71 million market supports 1283 full time jobs. Illinois: 954 Illinois expects to record $35 million in medical cannabis sales in 2016 but thats a figure dragged down by extremely low patient counts dispensaries and sales in the first two quarters of the year. Illinois opened its first dispensaries in early 2016. By the end of the year the state recorded $4.4 million in monthly sales. If we extrapolate that November sales figure to twelve months we get a snapshot of a $53 millionand rapidly growingmarket. That supports 954 jobs. New Mexico: 723 $40 million in 2016 medical cannabis saleswith 29 dispensaries offering medicine grown on 25 licensed farmsyields 723 full time jobs. Connecticut: 632 The size of Connecticuts market surprised us. The state currently has 14821 registered medical cannabis patients who frequent eight dispensaries across the state. Four licensed producers grow the crop for the entire population. If we cut patient count by 10 percentbecause were not sure how many of those registered patients are active purchasersto 13339 that yields annual sales of $35 million. Which is about $4.4 million per dispensary or $367000 per month. Thats a reasonable estimate. A $35 million market supports 632 full time jobs. Montana: 629 With 13190 patients and $2643 per patient in annual sales Montana sees an estimated $34.8 million in annual sales. MJ Biz estimated that 50 to 60 dispensaries operated before the Montana Supreme Court shut them down earlier this year. (That shutdown later became a start-back-up after the November passage of Initiative 182 which legalized dispensaries.) If each of those dispensaries did only $50000 in business per monththats $1667 per day or about eight patients per daythats still a $30 million market. Well stick with the $34.8 million number which yields 629 full time jobs. New York State: 573 We expect enormous growth in New Yorks medical cannabis system in 2017 due to the recent rule changes that allow nurse practitioners to certify patients and include chronic pain as a qualifying condition.Even under the previous rules which were notoriously difficult New Yorks patient base grew from 481 in January 2016 to 11989 one year later.If per-patient annual sales are $2643 thats a $31.7 million market. That yields 573 full time jobs. Maine: 470Maines $23.6 million in medical cannabis sales in 2015 supported 426 full time jobs. http://ift.tt/1Pr5xG1 MJ Biz forecast $30 million to $35 million in sales during 2016 which would be an increase of 25-45 percent. That seems like a stretch for a medical market that was already mature (as compared to say New Yorks). Lets estimate that Maine saw a 10 percent increase in sales in 2016 due to interest drummed up by the states adult-use legalization campaign. That would result in a $26 million market which yields 470 jobs. Rhode Island: 439 Three state-licensed dispensaries brought in $1 million in sales tax during the 2016 fiscal year. Given the state sales tax rate of 7 percent that amounts to $14.3 million in total annual sales. But the state health department had 13216 patients registered in early 2016. There are probably many more by now. And 13216 patients would spend on average a yearly total of $35 million. Clearly a lot of patients are bypassing the dispensaries to purchase from the states 3200 or more licensed caregivers who may grow for up to five patients each. Well estimate that only half of those caregivers do it for pay so lets call it a $10 million market there. A total market size of $24.3 million supports 439 full times jobs. Maryland: 294 Marylands medical market isnt yet open but preliminary licenseswere recently issued to 15 growers 15 processors and 102 dispensaries. (There is some overlap; a few have licenses in all three phases.) Final license approval and the first dispensary openings arent expected until later 2017 or possibly 2018 but with preliminary licenses in place each of those licensees has executives and managers already working full time. At this early stage well keep our estimates extremely conservative: four jobs for each grower two for each processor and two for each dispensary. That gives us a total of 294 full time jobs. New Jersey: 199 As tight as New Jerseys MMJ regulations are the state still saw $10 million in annual sales in 2015 which supported 181 full time jobs. Well estimate a 10 percent increase over 2015 for a 2016 market of $11 million. The new inclusion of PTSD as a qualifying condition in 2017 should continue to grow that market. $11 million in sales translates to 199 full time jobs. Minnesota: 190 A strangely small market for a state with 5.5 million people Minnesota has 3649 active patients and eight licensed dispensaries yielding an annual market value of $10.5 million which supports 190 full time jobs. Vermont: 143 An estimated 3000 patients are served by four dispensaries and four cultivation sites. The addition of chronic pain to the states qualifying conditions in mid-2016 should increase that patient count.But its still a relatively small market. A $7.9 million market supports 143 full time jobs. Delaware: 81 With 1700 patients $4.5 million in annual sales and just a single dispensary Delawares medical market supports 81 full time jobs. Florida: 70 Floridas new medical marijuana amendment passed in November 2016 took effect Jan. 3 but the first dispensaries arent expected until early 2018.(The state doesnt even have to issue the first patient cards until Sept. 3 2017.) That leaves the state with seven licensed nurseries legally growing and selling low-THC high-CBD cannabis to a very limited number of patients. We dont have any data beyond those seven licenses. Estimated number of full-time jobs: 70. New Hampshire: 52 Theres not much data at all coming out of the Granite State. Four licensed dispensaries serve around 1100 patientsfor a market of about $2.9 million. That supports 52 full time jobs. Hawaii: 48 Hawaii has a robust patient populationthe state counts 14492 registered cardholders in a state of 1.4 millionbut no dispensaries ready to serve them yet. The first 16 licensed dispensaries were supposed to open back in July 2016 but patients are still waiting. For now they have to grow their own or obtain it from a caregiver. When those 14492 patients can patronize dispensaries they may create a market worth $38 million in annual sales. Until then weve got to keep our full-time job estimate extremely low as dispensaries and growers remain in the preparation phase. Between 16 dispensaries and the growers getting ready lets say those make up 48 full time jobs right now. Normally wed add some caregivers to that job total but Hawaii law allows each caregiver to grow for only one patient so basically all of those 14492 patients are growing their own or obtaining from a caregiver whos not allowed to supply enough patients to turn the garden into a paying job. Pennsylvania Not open yet. License applications will be accepted in 2017 and the first dispensaries are expected in mid-2018. Ohio Not open yet. Final regulations are expected in September 2017 with the first of 40 dispensaries expected to open by Sept. 2018. Louisiana Not open yet. And not likely to open anytime soon. The medical marijuana law passed in 2016 allows for 10 licensed medical marijuana pharmacies. But pharmacists are under federal law licensed by the DEAand the DEA will not allow any pharmacist to legally dispense a Schedule I drug.How lawmakers in Baton Rouge will ultimately solve this conundrum is anybodys guess. North Dakota Not open yet. Dispensaries are not expected to open until at least 2018. Arkansas Not open yet. The state must begin accepting applications for dispensaries (at least 20 will be licensed but no more than 40 total) by June 1 2017. Totals: If we tally up the full-time jobs supported by the cannabis industry (both medical and adult use) in the nations legal medical and adult use markets we reach a total of 122814 full time jobs. Bruce Barcott and Gage Peake About the authors: Leafly Deputy Editor Bruce Barcott is a Guggenheim Fellow and an award-winning science writer whose work can be read in National Geographic TIME and the New York Times Magazine. His book Weed the People: The Future of Legal Marijuana in America was published by Time Books in 2015. Gage Peake is a Leafly staff writer and a recent journalism graduate of the University of Nebraska. The post How Many Jobs Depend on Legal Cannabis? We Did the Math. appeared first on Leafly. by Bruce Barcott and Gage Peake at Leafly